Female retention cuts slaughter and supports finished male prices in Brazil

Female cattle slaughter fell 13% year-on-year in January, contributing to shorter slaughter schedules and supporting finished male prices in the first half of February. The data comes from Datagro, based on preliminary figures from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa).

According to analyst Beatriz Bianchi, this was the largest drop in female processing since October 2021, when herd retention also occurred amid tighter supplies of finished cattle and stronger activity in cow-calf operations.

According to Mapa, more than 2 million head were slaughtered in January. The volume remains above the historical average but represents a 4.7% decline compared to January 2025, mainly due to fewer females being sent to plants.

With reduced supply, average slaughter schedules in the country fell to less than eight days, while prices moved higher. In São Paulo, the finished male price closed at R$ 342.47 per arroba on February 12, up 4.7% from R$ 326.87 at the beginning of the month, according to the Datagro Indicator. The upward movement was also observed in Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais.

The consultancy warns that the scenario calls for caution. Among the factors to consider are high interest rates, more stable feeding costs and the recent reaction of futures contracts, which moderate the opportunity cost of retaining breeding females.